Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Do P/E Ratios Expand Once the Fed is Done?

Here's a link to the latest Hussman market commentary: Do P/E Ratios Expand Once the Fed is Done?

And the money quote:
If we restrict valuations to a price/peak earnings multiple of 16 or higher (the current multiple is 19), we find that on average, S&P 500 earnings declined by -8.6% over the 18 months after the final rate-hike. Yet despite this decline in earnings (which would normally raise the raw P/E ratio if prices were to remain constant), the raw P/E ratio actually declined as well, by an average of -1.3%. The result was an average loss, including dividends, of -6.5% over the 18 month period (an annualized loss of -4.4%).

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